Why The Red Sox Stink

Even before their recent ridiculous parade of injuries that sees a new member of the squad visiting the hospital almost daily, it had become clear that the Boston Red Sox weren’t going anywhere this postseason. To be blunt, we had essentially started to really suck. Many point the finger at GM Theo Epstein, stating that he failed to craft a team commensurate with our payroll. The slide became so frustrating that I decided to look at what I thought was the biggest problem the team has had all season: the bullpen. I’m not a statistician but let’s take a look at some numbers.

The team began the season with veteran relievers Julian Tavarez, Mike Timlin, Rudy Seanez, and Keith Foulke all projected to pitch substantial innings in major roles. Only Foulke had any health concerns, but he was on the opening day roster, and all
four were proven veterans with track records of major league success. So how did they do?

As anyone who watches the Red Sox can tell you, “horribly.” But just how bad have they been? Diehard baseball statistical theorists have done research that shows that predicting the performance of relief pitchers is one of the hardest things to do in baseball. Thus, it appears that Epstein crafted this bullpen with that in mind. He assembled The Veteran Four, as I will call them, with the assumption that at least some of them, to some degree, would meet or exceed their expected value.

Simply put, this didn’t happen.

ERA is generally a good indicator of how well a pitcher is doing. ERA+ is even better, as it factors in a pitcher’s ERA in relation to the rest of his league, with 100 representing average, and numbers above 100 being better. I looked at the previous three seasons of ERA+ for The Veteran Four and the story was pretty good: of the cumulative twelve seasons, only two fell below average: Foulke’s injury-plagued 2005 and Seanez’s injury-marred horrific aberration in 2003. The other ten seasons combined all tallied ERA+ numbers well above the league average, which is more than anyone can hope for when it comes to non-closer members of a bullpen.

So let’s assume that Epstein assembled the bullpen with a worst case scenario mindset. I’m speculating, but let’s just say that he said “these four guys are all veterans, I know what they can do, and given their history it’s pretty safe to assume that they should reach at least 80% of their three year average performance.” Again, I’m pulling this number out of thin air, but it seems like a very conservative assumption. It is well known that the Red Sox had put together their best infield defense in many years, and that this would probably project to help pitchers even more. So assuming that pitchers would regress 20% from their three year average is a fairly pessimistic starting point.

So how did The Veteran Four fare against an 80% floor of their three year averages? They failed miserably. Only Seanez eclipsed the 80% baseline, and that is only because his 2003 season was so bad (ERA of 6.33, ERA+ of 76). I crunched my own numbers to come up with a rough ERA+ for 2006 so far, as of a couple of days ago, by comparing the relievers’ ERA to the current league average. Here’s what I found.

Rudy Seanez – 3 year ERA+ average: 92.8. 2006: 95.2 (note: his ERA+ average in 04-05 was 136).

Julian Tavarez – 3 year avg. 111.2 – 2006: 97.4…12.4% worse

Mike Timlin – 3 year avg. 119.5 – 2006: 111.6…6.62% worse, and seemingly getting worse by the day

Keith Foulke – 3 year avg. 134.7 – 2006: 81.5…39.5% worse

And remember, this is how much worse they have been than assuming they would only be at 80% of their three year averages to begin with…worse than the worst case scenario.

In other words, I think that Epstein put together a veteran bullpen as efficiently and affordably as he could, based on the assumption that at least 2-3 of the four would at least remain somewhere near their average. And it just didn’t happen. Epstein knew that he had young bullpen arms that would factor into the near future for the Red Sox, most notably Jonathan Papelbon, who exceeded all expectations as closer. But Manny Delcarmen and Craig Hansen will be important bullpen arms sooner rather than later. With the way the bullpen was put together, it looks to me as if Theo thought that he could even let one of The Veteran Four completely fail and plug the hole with one of the youngsters. But four voids was just too much for any club to fill.

The self-destruction of The Veteran Four thus, in essence, turned this into a rebuilding season for the Red Sox.