Monday, July 16, 2007

Sox second half



First, here are a couple of recent shots of AJ. He'll be four months old this Thursday and he already looks like a future All-Pro offensive lineman in the making.

So the Red Sox have a huge lead with less than half the season to go and yet a majority of Red Sox Nation seems determined to panic. Sure, there are things to worry about the rest of the way. Here are what I think are the top five concerns, ranked in order from least to most important.

5. Lugo, Coco, and Drew: all three underachieved in the first half...and it didn't slow us down at all. Coco has already started to show improvement and Lugo has even lit it up since shortly before the break. Lugo and Drew each just signed long term deals and they aren't going anywhere so we just have to wait it out with them, and I'm not concerned. They'll both put up better numbers the rest of the way. Center field is the one spot where we could make a move but I don't think it will happen. Coco has been great defensively and if he keeps contributing on offense like he has recently (OPS over 1.100 the last 30 days) then it will be a huge boost to the lineup.

4. The bullpen: I love our bullpen. Papelbon is an absolute beast and the Hideki Okajima signing is like finding a c-note in your jeans on laundry day. He's been absolutely unreal and the rest of the league has shown no indication that they are going to learn to hit him any time soon. The key then, for me, is what ends up happening in the 7th inning, and I think the answer is a simple one: Manny Delcarmen. His fastball has had more zip this year (hitting 97 consistently) and he finally has better command of his curve. Watching him dispatch Sammy Sosa recently in a crucial bases loaded spot was awesome. He's the future but I also think he's the present. Throw in the fact that Mike Timlin has seemingly gotten his mojo back--he's unscored upon his last eight appearances--and the bullpen doesn't worry me one bit. We're fine for the rest of the season and we're loaded for October.

3. Schill: he'll be back. With a nine game lead there is no need to rush him, and thankfully he seems to know this. We don't need him now, we need him in September and October. He has admitted to showing up this spring in less-than-ideal condition and that sucks, and he may be paying the price for it now. But the guy is a flat-out warrior and there still aren't many starters I'd rather have going with a huge game on the line. Get well, Curt. See you soon.

2. The back end of the rotation: this is one spot where the Sox could make a huge upgrade at the trading deadline. We can't expect to maintain a wide lead trotting Julian Tavarez and Kason Gabbard out 40% of the time down the stretch. I'm not saying that we need to add a starter, because I'm not sure that we do, and I definitely wouldn't want to if the cost is Lester or Buchholz. But if someone like Roy Oswalt does become available then they really need to consider it. An October rotation of Beckett, Dice K, Schill, and Oswalt would be outright ridiculous.

1. The Manny and Papi Power Outage: Okay...I'm worried. Papi's knee clearly isn't close to 100% and unless they shelve him and do the surgery now, it's not going to be the rest of the way. Meanwhile, Manny is 35 and might finally be turning mortal. Clearly we need these guys to do what they do, or at least a reasonable facsimile of it, because their presence in the heart of the order is what makes the whole lineup work. We don't need Papi to hit 50 bombs again but we do need these two to get it in gear. When they hit, we win. It's the only current aspect of the club that concerns me at all, and aside from telling Papi to have knee surgery now and hoping that he can come back 100% in 4-6 weeks, there's not much we can do but wait and hope.

And Red Sox fans are good at that. We'll be fine.

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