Monday, February 05, 2007

Not-so-Super wrap up

The best thing about that Super Bowl was that I went 5-for-6 on my bets, losing only the first TD scorer wager (which clinched me another bet at the same time). The game was fairly decent for a while but it didn't seem especially memorable in any way. Of course I'm clearly biased now, as any non-Patriots Super Bowl feels that way. But didn't Peyton Manning seem less than enthused when it was all over? Dude, you just won the Super Bowl...enjoy it! Crack a smile, fist pump, yell, scream, show some emotion. That made me like him even less. Whatever. The Pats will be back in the Bowl next season.

Ten days until pitchers and catchers report. I can't wait for the annual Boston media coverage of the truck leaving town with the equipment.

Sunday, February 04, 2007

Super Bowl XLI wagers

Thomas Jones OVER 87.5 combined rushing/receiving yards

Thomas Jones to score first TD (6-1)

There will be a defensive or special teams TD (3-2)

Rex Grossman OVER 17.5 completions

First offensive play of game will be more than 28.5 yards from goal line

TEASER: BEARS +14 and game total under 53.5

GO BEARS!

Wednesday, January 17, 2007

A tale of two teams

What a game for the Patriots on Sunday. I almost felt bad for the Chargers, watching them give the game away in such painful fashion...until they started bitching about it like spoiled little children. Get over it. I love that they tried to accuse the Patriots of lacking class for making fun of a stupid sack dance that is absolutely classless in the first place. Merriman is a cheater and a punk and I'm glad that we got to shove it in his face a little bit. Meanwhile, Landanian Tomlinson is getting a pass on the whole thing because he is "a good guy" and "a class act." But is he really? Ladanian, you got beat. Get over it and get over yourself.

So we've got Pats-Colts again, and obviously the Patriots are going to win this one too. I feel a little bit bad for Peyton Mannning because the national media, and maybe even his own fans, are going to really crush the guy if he loses this week. This one should be another tight game, probably going down to the fourth quarter just like last week. I think that Brady will have a better game, the running game will be a little more successful, and the defense will do enough to contain the Colts offense, which just hasn't been as explosive lately. Pats win by six, sealing the game with an interception late in the fourth quarter.

As for the Super Bowl potential match ups, I'm torn. If the Pats were to lose then I definitely want the Saints to win. But if we do take care of business then I'd almost feel bad about having to beat New Orleans in the Super Bowl. We'd be the clear-cut villains in that scenario and it would be a little weird. So I almost hope that the Bears get in so we can just slap them around.

At the other end of the spectrum is the drama around the Arkansas Razorbacks, who lost their offensive coordinator and their freshman QB this week. It's absurd. Mitch Mustain was the best high school player in the country, a prospect so good that Arkansas wisely hired his old high school coach just to secure the guy. And the coach in question, Gus Malzahn, opened things up and finally gave Razorback fans something to get excited about. Mustain was 8-0 as a starter during the great run the Hogs had...and then somehow it all went wrong. Idiot head coach Houston Nutt benched Mustain and reigned in Malzahn's play-calling duties. WHY? I have no idea. Now Malzahn has bolted to Tulsa of all places, with Mustain probably following him out the door. I'm not really a Hogs fan yet but as somebody who has started to go to games and follow the team, this is simply tragic. Does this mean that 2007 will be a return to the completely predicatable offense that drove fans crazy before? My wife, a diehard Razorback fan, now hopes that everything falls apart next season just so the school will have to fire Nutt. It's a sad state of affairs but that might be the best thing that could happen. What a mess.

Saturday, January 13, 2007

Pats-Bolts

The Patriots game on Sunday should be quite a matchup. All things considered, I think I feel as good about it as I possibly could when going on the road to face a #1 seed with a 14-2 record. Obviously the Chargers have a great team, as their roster is littered with Pro Bowl players on both sides of the ball, but the two reasons I think the Pats will pull it out give us a huge advantage: quarterback and coach. Brady's record clearly speaks for itself, while Phillip Rivers will be playing his first ever playoff game. Meanwhile Bill Belichick is the best head coach in the league, whereas Marty Schottenheimer has an all-time playoff record of 5-12 and hasn't won a big game in over a decade. I have faith that Belichick will find a defensive scheme to get the job done and that Brady will lead the offense to a solid win. Pats by 7.

Saturday, January 06, 2007

Holiday leftovers

* Dad's famous baked stuffed shrimp for Christmas Eve dinner were maybe the best ever. He made two kinds, including one with some fancy (read: expensive) Italian bread crumbs. I thought they tasted a little better, but then again I doubt I could have told the difference in a blind taste test. Dessert was a ridiculously good peppermint-chocolate trifle that mom made.

* Christmas dinner: prime rib. Awesome.

* Christmas Day: great fun with the whole family.

Except we picked up some terrible head cold from the kids...which seems to happen a lot. It got worse the following weekend, when we went back up to Memphis and then on to Nashville for the Patriots-Titans game. The morning of the game I was so stuffed up that I literally couldn't sleep--a huge rarity for me--and ended up roaming the streets at 6 AM looking for anything that might help. I got some Sudafed and juice at a nearby Courtyard Marriot mini-store. Luckily I actually felt better at the game, which was a blast. We had seats in a very cool handicap accessible section which gave us extra leg room. Our entire row seemed to be Pats fans.

Back in Little Rock, we went to the doctor on Tuesday and Beth and I have been on antibiotics ever since. Usually when I get a bad cold it sucks for 3-4 days and then it's done but this one is just lingering. Today is the last day of the meds but I'm still not all the way healthy yet. More pills next week? Who knows.

I finally got a PS3...or at least I ordered one. I had to get it at Best Buy, thanks to generous family members that loaded me up with gift cards there for both my birthday and Christmas. I still haven't actually seen a 60 gig version in a store but they had them available to order at Best Buy on-line yesterday so mine should be here next week, probably on Tuesday. Game and Blu-Ray reviews to follow.

I think the Pats will handle the Jets well on Sunday. All they need to do is take away the short passing game and they should roll and I have complete confidence that Belichick will find a way to do so. I think Laurence Maroney is going to have a huge game too.

Beth and I powered through the final season of "Alias" on DVD during our joint sick time. She had actually seen them all already but I went in cold, only knowing that it was the final year. I found it odd that the creator of the show, JJ Abrams, seemingly had almost nothing to do with the last year, not even the final episode. I know he was busy off making MI:3, but still...do you think he just sat down and watched the finale on TV? I wonder what he thought? Kind of strange.

Good TV starts back up in January, including 24. This will be the first time that I watch a whole season on TV during its initial run. I don't know if I'll like that. This shows seems perfect for DVD, but I'll see how it goes.

That's about it from here. I hope everyone is doing well in the new year.

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Megablog

I haven't written here much lately so I am going to group together a few topics that have little or no bearing on each other, in no particular order. Here they are:

SOX WIN MATSUZAKA SWEEPSTAKES

I am shocked and ecstatic that this happened. I'm generally an optimist in all things Red Sox, but when a brilliant player comes on the market and literally all that stands between him and a pinstriped uniform is a fat check, then I naturally assume that Big George will open up his ample wallet and write down any amount he pleases. I am absolutely stunned that the Yankees didn't do this. Matsuzaka has been on my radar for a while, thanks to Sons of Sam Horn. The opportunity to acquire a potential top of the rotation starter just entering his prime--he's 26--just doesn't ever come along in major league baseball. Is this a sure thing? Of course not. But for just a sneak peek of what we might be in store for, just go to YouTube and type in "Matsuzaka." His repertoire of pitches is insane. Yes, the Red Sox are throwing a ton of cash out there with their bid amount, but people seem to be missing part or all of the points that matter, aside from the big number:

1. This money doesn't count towards the salary structure or the luxury tax. Almost none of the press coverage has mentioned this, and it is a huge point. In essence, the Sox are using part of their huge finanical resources to buy the ability to get an ace for less than what he is actually worth, cap-wise. This is an enormous benefit to us. I can't stress enough how valuable it is to be able to do this, and I am amazed that more baseball writers aren't catching it.

2. The Red Sox already have grand plans to plant their flag in the Asian market and nothing does that better than this move. The Red Sox-Yankees rivalry now becomes instantly relevant across the Pacific because of the Matsuzaka-Matsui component. I have no doubt that shelling out $50 million will reap much, much more in benefits to the franchise down the road.

3. We get him. The Yankees don't. Simplistic, sure, but that is a gigantic reason why I love the move. The Yankees wanted this guy, and with their withering rotation, they almost need him, and all it took was cash...and it didn't happen. Absolutely mind-boggling.


WEDDING IN CAPE COD

My good buddy Michael Poignand got married in Chatham last weekend and we had a lovely trip there. I actually hadn't been back to the Cape in a few years so it was nice to return. The whole affair was very enjoyable and it's always fun to see the boys from back home. However, I was struck by how different this wedding was in many ways from the several that I have attended with my ASU Loop contingent. To sum up, I'll just put it this way: I don't think we'll ever see a gay man serving as the maid of honor at a Loop wedding.


BABY MAC

We're having a baby. Yeah, I know, I haven't mentioned that here yet, and that is partially by design. In fact, I think that at some point in the future I will branch out with an all-new, baby-only blog in addition to keeping this one. My reasoning behind this is simple: first, it makes sense to just have all of that in one place. I'm sure I'll love being able to look back on it someday. But secondly, not that I have a ton of people that even read this blog, but if they do, some of them probably have no interest in a baby blog. I know I wouldn't. Don't get me wrong--I love all my friends and family and all of their babies, but I don't need to be logging onto the internet for daily dispatches about so-and-so crawling, or crying, or pooping, or whatever it is these baby things do. Which I'm still figuring out.

But anyway...since I don't have that going yet, I will report that it's a HE, a boy, and from the looks of things, a possible future offensive lineman in the NFL. The phrase "wow, that's a big femur!" was one of my favorites during the recent ultrasound, right up there with "yup, it's a boy...definitely a boy!" He is due around the end of March or first of April. We are beyond excited. I am also really, really, really, really, really happy that it's a boy. Yeah. Very happy about that part.


NEW FALL TV SHOWS

I had planned to write a grand blog entry analyzing various new fall TV shows, but instead, I'll just try to list the few new ones that I am enjoying.

1. Studio 60: I love this show. Sure, I get tired of Sorkin's railing against the Christian right, and I really dislike the Harriet character--or the actress playing her; at this point, I'm still not sure which--but I adore the show. NBC recently picked it up for a full season and I hope that it stays on the air much longer than that.

2. Heroes. It's a fun comic book show, and in a way it is the anti-Lost in that they actually please the viewers by doling out crucial and exciting pieces of the story every week...something that Lost has really never done and that continues to drive fans crazy.

3. Dexter. A Showtime series about a Miami forensics department blood spatter expert that also happens to dabble as a serial killer...although, to his credit, he only murders people that deserve it. So you can see why this one is on cable. Very compelling, well acted, and it looks brilliant in HD.

4. Friday Night Lights. This also recently got picked up for the season, which came as a surprise. I like the show but I wish they would lighten up a little bit already. My mom even tried to check this one out and she has deemed it as just an "O.C." type show with football, but it's nowhere near as light hearted or as cheesy. I'll stick with it, hoping that I stay invested in the story. There are also a lot of great young actors that I've never seen anywhere before.

5. Shark. James Woods as an egotistical, pompous, brilliant lawyer. Not exactly a stretch, acting-wise, for him. He makes the show. It's all about him, and I don't know if that's enough to keep me tuning in every week, but so far it has been enjoyable.

CASUALTIES

Justice. Another lawyer show, with Sydney's dad from Alias and the gay guy from Dawson's Creek. It was very slick and entertaining enough, but Fox is already playing timeslot yo-yo with this one so I figure it's done. The young guy was horriby miscast, but the way the show was produced was enough to make it watchable.

Six Degrees. Title kind of says it all. I really wanted to get hooked on this show, if only because it has Tom Brady's girlfriend, and while I enjoyed the couple of episodes I watched, it just didn't draw me in enough. This one quickly reached "several episodes saved on TiVo" status, and once that happens for long enough and I don't watch them, then the show in question is usually in trouble. I think this one is done or dying.

The Nine. See above. The premise seemed cool enough--a hostage situation in a bank--but the show turned out to be just another serialized Lost-esque knockoff with flashbacks, seemingly unrelated people who are actually tied together, etc. Tried it once or twice and bailed, as I think most people will do.

I'm sure I'm forgetting some shows, but at least that will give me something else to write about.

Sunday, November 05, 2006

Pats-Colts

I can handle losing, but getting beat like the Patriots did on Sunday night is just painful. First, three of Brady's "interceptions" were on balls that hit receivers in the hands and should have or could have been catches. Secondly, the officiating was downright atrocious. The "taunting" call on Troy Brown was one of the most ridiculous penalties I have ever seen called in any football game, ever, and there were at least 2-3 other huge calls against New England that were just as bad, each of which came at a crucial time to give the Colts a first down. I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but if I were I would have a field day with that game.

That being said, Indy really did not impress me at all. They got five turnovers and another five or so gift calls and still only squeaked out a seven point "victory." Let them run the regular season table and get all the accolades the media will undoubtedly shower upon them after this "huge" win, this "statement" game, or whatever they shall call it. Guess what, Indy? For the Patriots, there are no "big wins" in November. Ours come in January and February...something this Colts team has been unable to do. I cannot wait to see the Pats smack the Colts under their own dome in the playoffs.

/end rant

Monday, October 16, 2006

video test

I've only recently signed up for a YouTube account. Sure, I've spent some time there, checking out the goofy videos, but I've never posted anything until now. It's nothing earth shattering...in fact, it's almost completely pointless. It's about a one minute long clip of Chewie howling along to a recording of himself (and Pedro) howling at the tornado warning test siren right down the street that goes off every Wednesday at noon.

Anyway...YouTube includes code for embedding videos in other places so this post is solely an attempt to test that out and see how it works, how it looks, how it formats it, etc.

Although if you want to hear a dog howling, then by all means you should check it out.

Sunday, October 15, 2006

Dirt for sale

I was just flipping through the channels and the Home Shopping Network was selling some sports memorabilia so I stopped to watch for a while...and then they started selling dirt. Not even very historic dirt, but a "Dirt Collage" featuring dirt taken from the home plate area at Yankee Stadium this year on opening day. There was also a photo (not autographed by anyone) and a reproduction of the lineup card. It was $149.97, plus $14.99 for shipping and handling. I figured that they'd be a lot better off selling A Rod's bat from the playoffs this year. After all, it was barely used and should be in mint condition.

Sunday, October 08, 2006

Protege

Okay, it's been over a week since the Protege qualifier and it took me just about that long to get over it. I actually kept a running diary of semi-meaningful hands but it's too painful to rehash the whole thing so instead, you get the short version of how I got knocked out. I know that bad beat poker stories are now officially in the top three in the category of "Most Annoying/Boring Stories That People Always Insist on Telling," right up there with tales about their fantasy teams and "listen to this dream I had last night."

But anyway...

We're at the final table. I'm pretty short stacked and pick up pocket aces in the big blind. My goal here is to eventually get it all in against one person, so that I'll be the favorite no matter what. Blinds are 150-300 and two guys limp in. I raise to 1300, first limper calls, second folds. Perfect. I'm short enough that I'm pushing on the flop no matter what but I feel very confident when it comes 4-6-6. The guy has a decent stack and calls my all in with...wait for it...7-8 off-suit. 7-8? He cold-calls a thousand chip raise with 7-8, then calls on that flop with no pair, no nothing. NATURALLY, like a punch in the face, a five comes on the turn, giving him a miracle gutshot straight. And just like that, my dreams of jet setting around the world on the high stakes circuit with Daniel Negreanu go down in flames. BRUTAL. Absolutely brutal.

Monday, September 25, 2006

Poker update

I haven't written a poker update in a while and I actually have a few (relatively) interesting things to report, so here goes:

A couple of weeks ago, I came in 3rd in a NLHE tourney with 45 players. That is a strange and new field size for me, as usually I'll either play in a big MTT (multi table tourney) with at least a couple hundred people, or a sit and go (SNG) with somewhere from 5-10. This was technically a SNG, meaning it started as soon as 45 people signed up. I don't remember too many specific hands from this one; I just played solid poker throughout and managed to do pretty well.

A day or two later I tried out another new endeavour on the virtual felt: a HORSE tournament. HORSE is a fixed limit form of poker that rotates amongst five different games: Hold 'Em, Omaha High/Low, Razz (lowball), Seven card stud, and Seven card stud high/low, eight or better (Eight being where the "E" comes from). The WSOP added a new HORSE event this year with a $50,000 buy-in and the true pros and poker aficionados consider it the best test of a player's skill because of the variety of games. I've played some HORSE on-line at Full Tilt and I've done well before in some cheap SNGs but this was my first shot at a big field. 198 players signed up and my strategy was simply to play tight and see how things would go. In the past, I've noted that many players in these tourneys are surprisingly bad at several of the games, usually the Stud varieties (note: Razz is simply seven card stud but with the lowest five cards winning). I am by no means a stud expert but I've worked at it enough that I don't consider it too much of a weakness in a tourney like this. I've also gotten pretty decent at Razz after some practice.

Anyway, the tourney went well. I lasted into the money and eventually the final table. The blinds got very high at this point--big enough that players often found themselves all-in when playing any given hand. I managed to keep grinding away and I got to heads-up during a Hold 'Em round. My opponent had a huge cheap lead on me, more than a two-to-one margin, after he knocked out the 3rd and 4th place finishers. I managed to draw nearly even on a lucky suckout, catching a three-outer on the river. After that, I just dominated the guy. The Hold 'Em round soon ended and it only took a few hands of Omaha for me to pull out the victory. This was the first MTT I've won in a while and it felt great, especially pulling one out in my first try at HORSE.

My luck didn't carrry over to my first home game in quite some time. On a weekend trip to Memphis, Dad and Casey put together a small game with a few of their guys up there. We each threw in $10 and played a quick NLHE tourney. I tried to play tight but it's tough to stay too disciplined in such an event. I lost a decent amount of my stack with A-J, then got knocked out when a K-10 caught up to my A-10. It's probably better this way though--at least the Memphis guys won't have me pegged for a ringer and I should be invited back to their game. Despite the loss, it was a lot of fun and I'm eagerly looking forward to the next Memphis game.

The last interesting tourney was this past Saturday night. Daniel Negreanu sponsors an event called "The Protege" in which he tutors one lucky person for a few months and stakes the winner into $40,000 worth of major poker tourneys. The first winner of "The Protege," Brian Fidler, came in 2nd place in just his second event after meeting with Daniel and won over $200,000. Negreanu is now preparing for a second Protege competition and he has a variety of ways that people can win a seat at the Protege Final Table of ten. I am a charter member of his message board at Full Contact Poker and as such I was given some freeroll shots at qualifying tournaments. On Saturday night, I made the top five and advanced to the next leg. To spare the details, the set up is this: on this coming Friday night, I'm in a tournament with 18 people. The winner gets a seat at The Protege Final Table, which just so happens to be taking place in the Bahamas in December. So that would be pretty cool. It will be tough, as all of the players qualified as I did, so they should have some game. But we'll see how it goes.

Thursday, September 14, 2006

Rock Star: Supernova

This is a one-shot column that I wrote for the RTVC website after the finale last night. I've had several e-mails from readers; some feel exactly like I do, while others feel that I need "a hearing-ear dog." I'm not sure if Pedro and Chewie would qualify in the eyes of that obvious music snob. Anyway, here it is.

SUPERNOVA DROPS THE BALL


This summer, CBS brought us the second season of Rock Star, in which a group of established musicians use a reality show to select a new singer. I didn’t catch season one, simply because I’m not a big INXS fan and the concept alone wasn’t enough to draw me in. But when I heard the lineup for the season two supergroup, it sounded too good to be true...and I loved it. For people that don’t watch the show, I had a simple way to describe it: “It’s like American Idol, except with good music.” And the quick summer season was perfect for this show. To compare it to sports, it was like a perfectly executed two minute drill in football, with talented performers making outstanding plays as they steadily marched down the field. It was fast, riveting, and thoroughly entertaining.

And then they fumbled at the goal line.

I know that musical taste is subjective, and that point is reinforced by the often odd voting outcomes from this season. But the point is simple: I am, or at least I thought I was, the demographic for this band. I’ve seen the band members live on many occasions and the CDs that they played on are staples of my collection. In short, I grew up listening to these guys rock. But by choosing Lukas, it seems like they are attempting to completely deny their past – it’s as if we’re now supposed to act as if they weren’t members of Motley Crue, Guns ‘N’ Roses, and Metallica.

And for me, that’s a huge problem. Because that’s why I love these guys, and that’s why I watched the show. Sure, they made a point of announcing early on that they weren’t forming a “metal band,” and that’s fine. But to completely deny their musical legacy is disrespectful both to their original bands as well as the diehard fans of said bands…people who, I think it’s safe to assume, made up a large portion of the viewing audience of this season. Am I the only one shocked by the fact that we didn’t hear a single song all season from the bands these guys were in? We got Nirvana nearly every single week but they couldn’t throw us “Enter Sandman” or “Kickstart My Heart” a single time? Considering who these guys are, that’s practically blasphemous. It’s way beyond disappointing.

In week one, I was pleasantly surprised by Lukas’s performance. I didn’t know what to expect when this punk rock leprechaun took to the stage, and then he brought the house down with Billy Idol’s “Rebel Yell.” It was the best performance of the night, and it wasn’t even close. The problem is that Lukas was never that good again. His vocal quality become grating and his stage presence borders on epileptic. He also seems to have no desire to sing the kind of music that the Supernova guys used to play, and sadly that’s probably why they picked him. I was intrigued when he elected to sing a Bon Jovi song just a few episodes ago, but then he chose an arrangement that made an 80s classic completely unrecognizable. In essence, that’s exactly what the band is trying to do as well by choosing him to front them.

Toby Rand was the clear-cut right choice. His original song was by far the best that any performer had to offer – it is catchy as hell and I’d love to hear it live with Gilby, Jason, and Tommy rocking along with it. But now I never will. Earlier today, I was looking at tour dates and considering making the trek to Dallas to catch the show in February, as that’s the closest the tour is coming to me. But now that Supernova has decided that they just want to be another 21st century vanilla modern rock outfit, I doubt I’ll even buy the CD. And I surely won’t shell out big bucks to watch Lukas’s manic stage contortions and listen to his choked-off squeals. The decision for a trio of metal gods to go that route is simply mind-boggling. So long, Supernova. To paraphrase a song that Tommy should know well, I’m not going to go away mad, I’m just going to go away.

Sunday, September 10, 2006

Tom Brady is the man

Here is just another in a long list of reasons why I love Tom Brady. On the first play of the game today, he got absolutely blindsided on a blitz because of a blown blocking scheme in which a Buffalo linebacker reached him completely untouched--nobody even made an effort to block him and the guy had the most free and clear shot he'll ever have on a QB. Here's a question from a Globe writer and Tom's answer:

Q. That first play, you were obviously at an open set and they came on a blitz. Was that something you didn't expect or were you surprised?

TB: Well, like I said, we all could have done a better job and I could have done a better job on that play to recognize what they were doing, and I didn't. And it served me right that I got hit in the back of the head and fumbled. And that is no way to start the season. But we recovered and came back and then we put together a nice drive after that. So it would have been nice to start with the second drive of the game, but you know, just better learning on my part and making sure things like that don't happen.


He blames himself on a play that was absolutely blown by someone else. And he really means it. He's the best.

Thursday, August 31, 2006

Why The Red Sox Stink

Even before their recent ridiculous parade of injuries that sees a new member of the squad visiting the hospital almost daily, it had become clear that the Boston Red Sox weren’t going anywhere this postseason. To be blunt, we had essentially started to really suck. Many point the finger at GM Theo Epstein, stating that he failed to craft a team commensurate with our payroll. The slide became so frustrating that I decided to look at what I thought was the biggest problem the team has had all season: the bullpen. I’m not a statistician but let’s take a look at some numbers.

The team began the season with veteran relievers Julian Tavarez, Mike Timlin, Rudy Seanez, and Keith Foulke all projected to pitch substantial innings in major roles. Only Foulke had any health concerns, but he was on the opening day roster, and all
four were proven veterans with track records of major league success. So how did they do?

As anyone who watches the Red Sox can tell you, “horribly.” But just how bad have they been? Diehard baseball statistical theorists have done research that shows that predicting the performance of relief pitchers is one of the hardest things to do in baseball. Thus, it appears that Epstein crafted this bullpen with that in mind. He assembled The Veteran Four, as I will call them, with the assumption that at least some of them, to some degree, would meet or exceed their expected value.

Simply put, this didn’t happen.

ERA is generally a good indicator of how well a pitcher is doing. ERA+ is even better, as it factors in a pitcher’s ERA in relation to the rest of his league, with 100 representing average, and numbers above 100 being better. I looked at the previous three seasons of ERA+ for The Veteran Four and the story was pretty good: of the cumulative twelve seasons, only two fell below average: Foulke’s injury-plagued 2005 and Seanez’s injury-marred horrific aberration in 2003. The other ten seasons combined all tallied ERA+ numbers well above the league average, which is more than anyone can hope for when it comes to non-closer members of a bullpen.

So let’s assume that Epstein assembled the bullpen with a worst case scenario mindset. I’m speculating, but let’s just say that he said “these four guys are all veterans, I know what they can do, and given their history it’s pretty safe to assume that they should reach at least 80% of their three year average performance.” Again, I’m pulling this number out of thin air, but it seems like a very conservative assumption. It is well known that the Red Sox had put together their best infield defense in many years, and that this would probably project to help pitchers even more. So assuming that pitchers would regress 20% from their three year average is a fairly pessimistic starting point.

So how did The Veteran Four fare against an 80% floor of their three year averages? They failed miserably. Only Seanez eclipsed the 80% baseline, and that is only because his 2003 season was so bad (ERA of 6.33, ERA+ of 76). I crunched my own numbers to come up with a rough ERA+ for 2006 so far, as of a couple of days ago, by comparing the relievers’ ERA to the current league average. Here’s what I found.

Rudy Seanez – 3 year ERA+ average: 92.8. 2006: 95.2 (note: his ERA+ average in 04-05 was 136).

Julian Tavarez – 3 year avg. 111.2 – 2006: 97.4…12.4% worse

Mike Timlin – 3 year avg. 119.5 – 2006: 111.6…6.62% worse, and seemingly getting worse by the day

Keith Foulke – 3 year avg. 134.7 – 2006: 81.5…39.5% worse

And remember, this is how much worse they have been than assuming they would only be at 80% of their three year averages to begin with…worse than the worst case scenario.

In other words, I think that Epstein put together a veteran bullpen as efficiently and affordably as he could, based on the assumption that at least 2-3 of the four would at least remain somewhere near their average. And it just didn’t happen. Epstein knew that he had young bullpen arms that would factor into the near future for the Red Sox, most notably Jonathan Papelbon, who exceeded all expectations as closer. But Manny Delcarmen and Craig Hansen will be important bullpen arms sooner rather than later. With the way the bullpen was put together, it looks to me as if Theo thought that he could even let one of The Veteran Four completely fail and plug the hole with one of the youngsters. But four voids was just too much for any club to fill.

The self-destruction of The Veteran Four thus, in essence, turned this into a rebuilding season for the Red Sox.

Thursday, August 10, 2006

Ten Random Things That Annoy Me

Ten Random Things That Annoy Me

People away from home who insist on telling you what time it is “their time.” This is especially obnoxious somewhere such as Las Vegas, where time—in any time zone—has almost no meaning. “I need to go to bed. It’s 4 AM my time.” No, it’s 1 AM and you’re in Vegas for god’s sake. Live a little!

ESPN’s coverage of whatever negative sports story du jour they decide to harp on.

Zayra from “Rock Star: Supernova.” Man, is she awful.

People that quantify their effort with some number exceeding 100%. I know that “giving 110%” has become the new cliché that represents actually giving something your all. But now we get people saying they gave “150%.” Really? You tried as hard as you absolutely could at something, plus half as hard as that?

Anderson Cooper.

The chip leader at the WSOP, who says he is considering dumping his chips because he’d rather come in 2nd place because he “doesn’t want to be famous.” How someone with this attitude ever actually amassed such a chip lead is beyond me.

“Treasure Hunters” on NBC. I tried to give this show a chance but I just couldn’t do it. It was awful.

“Don’t Pass” craps players.

Drivers that hang out in the passing lane when you are right behind them and it is clear that if they would just get over, you would quickly pass them, and everyone could just get on with their lives.

Sarah Jessica Parker.