The Sox in Spring - What I'm Watching

With pitchers and catchers in camp and the obligatory “where is Manny?” story already settled, I figure it’s time to take a look at 20 things I’ll be watching regarding the 2007 Boston Red Sox. In no particular order:

1. Curt Schilling. I still think that the Sox will get something done with Curt before season’s end if they do want to bring him back for 2008. $13 million for a guy like that is suddenly a bargain in the post-Gil Meche market, but I can also certainly understand why they might want to see him in action before shelling out guaranteed cash for a 40 year old beefy right-hander that has been less than his ace-line self the past two seasons. If Curt has a strong spring and start to the season, I think Theo gets the deal inked, despite the current talk.

2. Will Josh Beckett turn the corner? Last year was an interesting one for him, as he tallied career highs in several key categories despite being pretty inconsistent, surprisingly wild, and susceptible to the long ball. The bottom line is that pitching in the AL East is a far cry from some of the AAAA rosters Beckett got to feast on in Florida. Hoping for a sub-4 ERA just might be too much to ask, but I do think his numbers will be stronger across the board with one year in Boston under his belt. Indications are already good that Beckett looks stellar in camp, spotting his fastball well and lower in the zone. That’s a good sign.

3. Welcome, Daisuke Matsuzaka. Ahh, Dice-K. I really love this guy already. His attitude seems phenomenal and the absurd media coverage doesn’t seem to faze him a bit. I was ecstatic when we got him and I think he’s going to be every bit as good as people hope…and even better. I say that he wins 20+ games and the Cy Young. And he’ll be exciting as hell to watch.

4. Jonathan Papelbon’s transition to the rotation is one of the key moves of the Sox off-season, mainly because it leaves such a glaring hole at the back of the bullpen. The Sox have entered the season without a closer as recently as 2003 and that didn’t exactly work out like anyone hoped it would. I’d love to keep Paps as the closer and I’m sketchy about the medical diagnosis. Is throwing three to four times as many innings really going to be better for his shoulder? I won’t be surprised at all if he ends up back in the pen. I’d welcome the move.

5. Tim Wakefield. Last year was a rare down season for the ageless knuckleballer. Will he revert to his usual form? Granted, he’s about as solid a fifth starter as anybody’s got these days. But if he can just bounce back to his 2005-level stats—33 starts, 225 innings—then the Sox are in really, really good shape.

6. Is Joel Piniero closer material? I honestly have no idea at this point, and this is exactly the kind of storyline that can get blown out of control one way or the other based on what he does in March. If he starts lighting it up and striking out a bunch of AAAA non-prospects, then everyone will get fired up and rave about the brilliance of the signing. But if he gets lit up just a couple of times, Shaughnessy and the other jackals will be crucifying him before the season even starts. Tough spot here. He doesn’t feel like a closer to me, but stranger things have happened.

7. Mike Timlin is the most reliable veteran arm we have in the bullpen but he really took a step backward last season. Most people attribute some of the trouble to his pitching in the WBC, and that could certainly be the case. He’s a warrior and we’re counting on him to have an important role in the pen this year but he’s not getting any younger. If last season’s stat line becomes the status quo or, worse, Timlin continues to slide, it could cause some real problems early in the season.

8. What’s the deal with Craig Hansen? There was so much hype about this guy coming out of St. John’s that my expectations were set way too high, but I’m not the only one. His brief minor league numbers were ridiculously good and insiders made it seem like just a matter of time before Hansen turned into vintage Robb Nen. Right now it seems like he is destined to start the year in Pawtucket but we’re going to need him to contribute, and soon.

9. Manny Delcarmen had a weird year last season, and those who look really closely at the numbers seems to think that he was basically unlucky, with an inordinately high batting average on balls in play number. His other peripherals were great across the board (almost a 3-1 Ks to BB ratio, nearly 1 K/IP, and only 2 HRs allowed all year). I think he makes the team coming out of camp and grabs a key role, probably as a go-to guy in the 7th and 8th innings.

10. Hideki Okajima is often forgotten thanks to all the hype that his fellow countryman is drawing, and that’s probably fine. From the few clips I’ve seen of him on YouTube, it seems like Okaji is going to be a great situational lefty out of the pen, a guy that can really eat up lefties. His curveball looks fantastic. He might be a sleeper candidate for closer, if only because major leaguers haven’t seen him yet, and that worked for the Dodgers and unheralded Takashi Saito last season (6-2, 24 saves, 2.07 ERA, 107 Ks in 78.1 IP).

11. Jon Lester seems like his comeback is right on track, and it’s impossible not to pull for the guy after what he went through last season. He’s another guy probably bound for the Pawtucket-to-Boston-and-back shuttle, but if he is really healthy and all the way back he’ll be the first guy we call on when a starter goes down. And if last year taught us anything, it’s that there is no such thing as too much starting pitching. He’ll be in the rotation for good by this time next season.

12. Kevin Youkilis stepped in to the starting lineup and stayed there, but his production really fell off in the second half (.245 avg. from July on). Reports say that he is in much better shape in order to withstand the rigors of the long season, and that’s good, because he is a key piece of the batting order. He deserves credit for doing whatever Tito asked of him during the Titanicesque 2006 swoon, including playing LF when he was banged up and had no business being on the field. I’d like to see him at leadoff or in the #2 hole because his OBP is so good. If we end up swinging a deal for Todd Helton, then Youks slides over to 3B. If not, then he’ll give us solid production at the right price at 1B. His glove work last year was a nice surprise too.

13. Dustin Pedroia is getting every shot at the starting 2B job this spring and I think he’s going to grab it. Granted, I’m a little biased since he’s an ASU guy, but his attitude is just great…David Eckstein is the comparison most people make, and that guy just won his second ring and a World Series MVP. If Pedroia gets there and he’s our #9 hitter, then our lineup will be in great shape. Pedroia apparently worked out like crazy in the off-season, shedding around 20 pounds. My only concern is that Shaughnessy and the other buzzards will pounce if Pedroia has a slow start. And if anything truly bad happens, we’ve got Cora waiting in the wings.

14. Julio Lugo was one of our big winter free agent signings and steps in at SS. He’s been an underrated player for a long time and he should really flourish at the top of this order. I figure he’ll easily set a career high in runs (his best is 93) no matter where he hits in the lineup. He’ll also knock double-digit homers and swipe a few bags. I’ll miss the A-Gonz defense, but Lugo is a great fit.

15. Mike Lowell just needs to match what he did last season: .284-20-80 with very solid defense. This came as kind of a surprise to some after Lowell’s career-worst 2005 season. If a Helton deal materializes, he’ll almost certainly be a piece of it. If not, he should bat 6th or 7th most nights and be a solid part of this team.

16. I love Manny Ramirez, and I don’t understand why the rabid Boston media continues to try to construct stories where none exist. He is what he is. Everyone knows what to expect: a flaky attitude, a late arrival to camp, a mini-drama in the middle of the season, another one towards the end of the year…oh, and .300-35-120 and a first ballot election to the Hall of Fame. It’s that last part that counts. Initially the phrase “Manny being Manny” was crafted to try to explain his space cadet behavior, but I think at this point it just sums up the whole package. I don’t think there is another right handed outfielder in the league that I’d rather have. Batting fourth, and contending for the MVP…Manny Ramirez.

17. Coco Crisp is my pick for Red Sox comeback player of the year. The finger injury clearly hampered him all year after he came back, but I think people are underestimating what he can mean to this team. I especially like the talk of batting him lower in the order, because taking the pressure off of him leading off could help, plus he’ll get a lot more opportunities to steal bases in the lower third of the order. Sure, his arm in centerfield leaves a little bit to be desired but the same thing can be said about the most recent former resident of that position, and we did alright with that long haired, bearded freak. Coco, we believe. He’ll post a monster line in 2007.

18. Sportswriters love to talk about how JD Drew and Boston just aren’t the right fit, and maybe they’re not. What I do know is that Drew has pure talent and if he can stay on the field he’ll be a big upgrade for us both at the plate and in the field. Playing RF at Fenway is one of the toughest defensive gigs in all of baseball but I think Drew will eventually be up to the challenge. And he’ll certainly be better than Trot Nixon has been recently. I love Trot, but his immobility really started to turn him into a defensive liability at the end. There’s a lot of pressure on Drew to play stellar defense and hit fifth in the order. I think he’s up to the task.

19. I cannot say a bad word about Jason Varitek. I know that we overpaid on his contract, and I know that 35 year old catchers don’t normally produce much. But if there is anyone that can bounce back, it’s Tek. His 2006 stat line was brutal: a career low batting average and basically the worst production across the board since he got hurt in 2001. But honestly, I don’t care. He will be better, and his handling of our pitching staff just doesn’t show up in the box score. Bat him eighth, give him more days off, whatever. He’s The Captain for a reason. Tek will be fine.

20. There really isn’t a lot to say about David Ortiz that hasn’t been said. His clutch performances are outright ridiculous and the guy is just more fun to watch than probably any Red Sox player I’ve ever seen. It also looks like he slimmed down a little in the off season, so maybe he is wise to the Mo Vaughn comparisons, thank god. Papi will hit 60 bombs and win the MVP this year. Book it.

Not-so-Super wrap up

The best thing about that Super Bowl was that I went 5-for-6 on my bets, losing only the first TD scorer wager (which clinched me another bet at the same time). The game was fairly decent for a while but it didn't seem especially memorable in any way. Of course I'm clearly biased now, as any non-Patriots Super Bowl feels that way. But didn't Peyton Manning seem less than enthused when it was all over? Dude, you just won the Super Bowl...enjoy it! Crack a smile, fist pump, yell, scream, show some emotion. That made me like him even less. Whatever. The Pats will be back in the Bowl next season.

Ten days until pitchers and catchers report. I can't wait for the annual Boston media coverage of the truck leaving town with the equipment.

Super Bowl XLI wagers

Thomas Jones OVER 87.5 combined rushing/receiving yards

Thomas Jones to score first TD (6-1)

There will be a defensive or special teams TD (3-2)

Rex Grossman OVER 17.5 completions

First offensive play of game will be more than 28.5 yards from goal line

TEASER: BEARS +14 and game total under 53.5

GO BEARS!